With Donald Trump trying to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, and announcing a pause on tariffs, the traditional market showed some reversal and naturally gold also started to drop.
With a drop already reaching 2000 points, will it continue to drop 1000 points, and reach $3200 this week?
In this article, we’ll discuss the next possible XAUUSD gold price prediction from April 28th to May 2nd and present you with key buying and selling zones.
Key economic events of this week
Several significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, all of which might significantly impact XAUUSD.
Tuesday:
An increase in openings indicates a strong labor market, which might push gold lower and strengthen the USD. A slowing economy would be indicated by fewer openings, which would be good for gold.
Wednesday:
- Advance GDP q/q & GDP m/m: These are important markers of growth. The Fed may be more inclined to hold or raise rates if a robust GDP report demonstrates economic resiliency, which would be negative for gold.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI): If investors are concerned about sticky inflation, a rise in employment costs may encourage safe-haven gold purchases.
Thursday:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI. A negative result could reduce prospects of a Fed rate hike, which could be good for gold.
- Unemployment claims: A high number indicate sluggish labor, which could lead to a Fed pause and bullish gold prices.
Friday:
The XAUUSD will be mostly driven by this news. A strong employment data might put more pressure on gold, while any indication of poor labor markets or slow wage growth could spark a gold surge.
The war in the east
While the ongoing Russian and Ukrainian war is still ongoing, although some talks of mediation are there, there is another bigger war brewing in the East. Pakistan and India are seen marching their artillery on their shared border, owing to the incident that happened in Indian-occupied Kashmir, where 26 unarmed people were killed.
This war can further increase the price of gold as Indian households collectively own 25,000 tonnes of gold, which is more than the top 10 central banks of the country.
All of this can effectively mean the bullish rally in gold can continue.
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Gold HTF Overview
While fundamentally gold still remains bullish, technical indicators are hinting a deeper retracement before gold starts its ascent once again.
The weekly timeframe of gold ended in a bearish candlestick pattern, and while this candle didn’t engulf its previous weekly candle, some retracement can still be expected based on this bearish pattern.
Furthermore, if we draw a Fibonnaci from the start of this bullish rally to $3500, we can see that price has tested the 0.236 fib level last week and already gave a bounce, and now the next weekly level lies at the 0.382 level which is 3154.78.
Gold Forecast for April 28th to May 2nd
Now that gold has finally given a good retracement, we can expect gold to start hitting good buying levels where buy side liquidity is present. For this purpose, the 4h timeframe is a good parameter.
The first level on the 4h is the immediate support of $3247-3193. Also the POC level is right at $3226 which can be a deciding factor on stopping the bearish price action on gold. Price is expected to tap this level this week and give a nice bounce of 200-500 points.
If gold decides to dive further and offer a deeper correction, we have the $3165-3124 level where 4h breaker block and FVG are present. Also at $3124 is the value area high of this swing. Losing $3124 will cause gold to move towards $3009 which shows the importance of this zone for bulls.
Now let’s talk about selling levels in gold. The first selling zone in gold starts from $3342-3353. This selling zone will become stronger if $3260 is broken in 1 hour and the price closes below it. This is because the bearish order block of $3342-3353 will become a high probability zone for entering a short position in gold.
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Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for buys in the higher time frame levels and look for selling in the lower time frame levels. Mark these levels on your chart for easier trading guidance when you trade.
Support Levels
- $3245 – 4h breaker block
- $3165 – 4h FVG and breaker block
Resistance Levels
- $3342-3353 – 1hr OB and FVG
In summary, gold remains fundamentally bullish despite short-term bearish pressure. Key support levels at $3245 and $3165 present strong buying opportunities, while resistance around $3342–$3353 offers short-term selling setups. Traders should stay flexible and monitor key economic events this week to align with gold’s next major move.
