Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts oil supply, but traders doubt $160 WTI in April

The Strait of Hormuz closure continues to disrupt global oil supply amid the ongoing Iran conflict, but Polymarket traders price WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at just 0.9% YES.

Market reaction

The odds for WTI reaching $160 are flat at 0.9%, unchanged over the past 24 hours. The WTI market has $514 in daily actual USDC traded against a face value of $49,622 in total trades. It takes $1,955 to move the odds by 5 points, meaning a single large trade could shift the price substantially.

Why it matters

The strait’s closure and military tensions create conditions for price spikes, but the stagnant odds and thin volume suggest traders expect WTI to stay well below $160 through April. The gap between face value ($49,622) and actual USDC traded ($514) points to limited conviction. With 68 days until resolution, the market is pricing in stability rather than a supply shock.

What to watch

Ceasefire talks in Pakistan are the main catalyst. Any progress or breakdown there could move energy market pricing quickly. At 0.9% YES, a share costs 1¢ and pays 100x if April delivers a major escalation or supply disruption. That payout only makes sense if you expect a scenario most traders currently dismiss.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.