Iran maintains control of Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks

Last-ditch peace talks over the Strait of Hormuz ended without resolution, reaffirming Iran’s control. The market for U.S. escorting commercial ships through the strait by April 30 sits at 5% YES, down from 7% yesterday.

Market reaction

The US escorts through Hormuz market dropped 2 points as traders priced in skepticism about imminent U.S. military intervention. The market for UK warships transiting the strait is unchanged at 2%, with traders doubting a quick UK military response.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market prices a return to normal by May 15 at just 19% YES, pointing to continued disruption with minimal controlled passage. Iranian control after failed talks makes near-term normalization unlikely.

What to watch

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market leads in liquidity with $36,459 in daily USDC volume. It takes $4,658 to move that market 5 points. The U.S. escort market is thinly traded at $1,276 in daily USDC, with only $732 needed to move it 5 points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point drop at 11:47 AM, showing how reactive this market is to news.

At 5¢, a YES share on U.S. escorts pays $1 if resolved by April 30, a 20x return. But you’d need to believe in an unexpected U.S. military intervention within the next 6 days for that bet to pay off. Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon on naval escorts or military maneuvers, and any statements from the Iranian government or unexpected diplomatic moves that could shift odds quickly.

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