US-Israeli strikes on Iran complicate nuclear deal prospects before April 30

US-Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have collapsed the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 to 1.8% YES, down from 7% just 24 hours ago.

The US-Iran nuclear deal market has $107,556 in face value but only $7,699 in real money traded. It would take $1,550 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, making this a thin market. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 3:50 PM, which quickly faded.

The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market sits at 1.4% YES, down from 6% yesterday. This market is even thinner: $4,778 in actual USDC traded, and $2,529 needed to shift the odds 5 points.

The Iranian regime fall market has ticked up to 8.5% YES from 8% a day ago. Volume is $35,587 in actual USDC traded daily, and it would take $16,830 to move the odds 5 points. Traders are pricing in increased instability but not regime collapse.

The strikes cut directly against any diplomatic path forward. Iran has suspended IAEA cooperation and is considering NPT withdrawal, making a deal by end of April nearly impossible on the current timeline. A YES share in the nuclear deal market at 1.8¢ pays $1 if the deal happens, a 55x return. Given that both sides are hardening their positions after military action, this is a long shot bet with six days left on the clock.

Watch for any unexpected resumption of talks or public concessions from either side. With only six days until April 30, the window for a diplomatic reversal is extremely narrow.

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